Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
